05 · China Deep-Dive

The world's biggest buyer, racing to build its own

China consumes more chips than any other country and imports the largest share of them. Under U.S. export controls it has launched an all-out self-sufficiency drive — and is now actively steering its own companies away from Nvidia, even when Washington allows the sale.

~$186B
China chip market, 2025
largest single market
~30%
locally-made share of its chips
targeting 50–60% by 2030
41% → 86%
AI-chip self-sufficiency '25→'30E
Morgan Stanley est.
13.6%
equipment self-sufficiency '24
rising fast, 50% local mandate
5.1

Demand: the indispensable market

China is both the largest consumer of semiconductors and the largest importer. Its domestic market was worth roughly $186B in 2025 and accounts for over 30% of global demand. That dependence cuts both ways: when trade tensions flared in 2025, Beijing quietly dropped its 125% retaliatory tariff on U.S. logic chips — an area "predominantly dominated by U.S. companies but difficult for China to quickly find alternative sources."

China semiconductor market size

Domestic market value, US$ billions
Source: Statista, market research aggregates
The Information China this week quietly dropped its retaliatory 125% tariffs on certain U.S. semiconductors… the exemptions pertain solely to logic chips, an area predominantly dominated by U.S. companies but difficult for China to quickly find alternative sources. — Qianer Liu, "China Quietly Drops 125% Retaliatory Tariff on Crucial U.S. Semiconductors," The Information, Apr 25, 2025

China imported roughly $11.7B of semiconductors from the U.S. in 2024 (U.S. customs data) — and far more from Taiwan and Korea.

5.2

The self-sufficiency drive

Since "Made in China 2025," Beijing has poured state capital into the sector via the National IC Industry Investment Fund (the "Big Fund"), tax breaks and R&D programs. The strategy is showing results at mature nodes: SMIC's Q4 2025 profit jumped 23% on localization demand, and China now mandates that new capacity use at least 50% domestically-produced equipment. But the gap at the leading edge — especially EUV lithography and AI training chips — remains wide.

Self-sufficiency: progress vs. goal

Approximate local-content share by category
Source: TrendForce, Morgan Stanley, industry estimates
Strength · mature nodes China is rapidly scaling ≥14nm capacity for autos, industrial and IoT. SMIC, Hua Hong and Nexchip are adding fabs; Nexchip grew ~24% in 2025 on localization.
Gap · leading edge SMIC can make 7nm without EUV, but at limited yield and volume. Without EUV tools (ASML ships none to China), sub-5nm at scale remains out of reach.
Gap · AI training The InformationChinese firms can make "adequate chips for inference… they still lack the technology to manufacture powerful training chips," which makes high-end Nvidia parts hard to replace.
5.3

Export controls & the Nvidia stand-off

Washington's controls restrict advanced logic (≤16nm), advanced DRAM (≤18nm), high-layer NAND, HBM and the equipment to make them. The policy has whipsawed: after the Biden-era clampdown, the Trump administration moved in late 2025 to allow some sales (including Nvidia's H200) on a case-by-case basis, then in January 2026 added a 25% tariff on covered advanced AI chips. The most striking twist, though, came from Beijing's side.

The Information The Chinese government this week asked some tech companies to temporarily halt plans to buy Nvidia's H200 AI chips… throwing up a possible roadblock in Nvidia's hopes of restarting chip sales to one of its biggest markets. — Qianer Liu, "China Tells Tech Companies to Halt Nvidia H200 Chip Orders," The Information, Jan 7, 2026

Per the same report, officials are weighing whether to require firms to buy a set ratio of domestic AI chips alongside any H200 purchases — using Nvidia access as a temporary bridge while local champions (Huawei and others) catch up, without derailing the long-term self-sufficiency goal.

The Information China has ordered new data centers that receive state funds to use only domestically produced AI chips… data center projects less than 30% complete were told to remove foreign chips or cancel plans to buy them. — Qianer Liu, "China Bans Foreign AI Chips in State-Funded Data Centres," The Information, Nov 5, 2025

The directive threatens the China revenue of Nvidia, AMD and Intel while boosting domestic suppliers such as Huawei — even as broader trade tensions were easing.

The core dilemma (Beijing's view) AI development and chip self-sufficiency are both national priorities — but they clash. Allowing Nvidia imports accelerates AI now; relying on them slows the home-grown ecosystem. The emerging compromise: controlled, quota-linked access rather than an open door.
5.4

The domestic champions

CompanyRoleStatus
SMICLeading foundry7nm (no EUV); flagship of the localization push; +23% Q4'25 profit
Huawei (HiSilicon / Ascend)AI chips & designLeading domestic AI accelerator; primary Nvidia alternative
Hua Hong / NexchipMature-node foundryScaling auto/industrial capacity; Nexchip +24% '25
YMTCNAND memoryAdvancing 3D NAND despite entity-list constraints
CXMTDRAM memoryChina's leading DRAM maker; closing the gap on legacy nodes
AMEC / NAURAEquipmentEtch, deposition, cleaning — driving equipment localization